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Source: AAA Indiana fuel prices and metro averages ↗Indiana business market
Selective growth. Disciplined expansion.
Indiana offers substantial opportunities, but demand varies sharply by sector and customer. This edition brings together state labor data, regional business feedback and company announcements to guide operating decisions.
Research edition · · BusinessIndy analysisCurrent market
Low unemployment does not mean broad acceleration
Indiana’s July unemployment rate was 3.3%. Private employment totaled 2,843,900, down 4,900 from June. Construction and private education/health services added jobs. Read these measures together: a low unemployment rate can coexist with slowing payroll growth.
Indiana DWD · July employment report ↗BLS · State unemployment table ↗A large industrial economy with service opportunities
IBRC’s 2025 Q2 comparison put manufacturing at 27.3% of Indiana real GDP, versus 10.1% nationally. That is a structural reference, not a September 2026 growth estimate. Regional Fed contacts reported slight activity growth in the latest period.
IU Kelley / IBRC · Indiana industry structure ↗Federal Reserve · Chicago district ↗Geography matters
A statewide average is a starting point. Compare the specific county, workforce catchment, customer segment and facility requirements before choosing a market. The Chicago Fed district includes much of Indiana but does not represent the entire state.
Indiana DWD · July employment report ↗Federal Reserve · Chicago district ↗Major players
Representative anchors across sectors, not a revenue ranking or an exhaustive list. Company sources establish their activities; they do not independently establish market share.
| Company | Market | Why watch |
|---|---|---|
| Eli Lilly and CompanyNYSE: LLY · Loading… | Human medicines and manufacturing | Lebanon investment and pharmaceutical supply chainsLilly · Indiana expansion announcement ↗ |
| CumminsNYSE: CMI · Loading… | Engines and power systems | Industrial equipment, monitoring and aftermarket needsCummins · Mining developments ↗ |
| Allison TransmissionNYSE: ALSN · Loading… | Vehicle propulsion and off-highway systems | Manufacturing and mobility supply chainsAllison · Quarterly results ↗ |
| Zimmer BiometNYSE: ZBH · Loading… | Medical technology | Orthopedics and medical-device operationsZimmer Biomet · Quarterly results ↗ |
| Elanco Animal HealthNYSE: ELAN · Loading… | Animal health | Livestock and companion-animal productsElanco · Quarterly results ↗ |
| Indiana University HealthNot publicly traded | Healthcare delivery | Clinical infrastructure and specialized careIU Health · Cancer care program ↗ |
| Simon Property GroupNYSE: SPG · Loading… | Retail real estate | Retail destinations, leasing and tenant demandSimon · Quarterly performance ↗ |
| Duke Energy IndianaNYSE: DUK · Loading…Parent company: Duke Energy | Electric utility | Power supply and local utility requirementsDuke Energy · Indiana operations ↗ |
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Important trends
Investment and hiring are moving at different speeds
State payroll data and regional contacts point to uneven conditions. Treat large capital announcements as potential supplier pipelines; require contracts or procurement evidence before counting them as near-term revenue.
Indiana DWD · July employment report ↗Federal Reserve · Chicago district ↗Indiana Commerce · Investment announcements ↗Modernization creates a practical sales opening
Cummins’ July mining announcement includes engine upgrades and remote monitoring. Lilly’s manufacturing commitments indicate a different capital-intensive market. These examples support investigating maintenance, automation and qualified supplier work; they do not establish market-wide sales growth.
Cummins · Mining developments ↗Lilly · Indiana expansion announcement ↗Price pressure remains commercially important
The September national Beige Book describes price-sensitive buyers and persistent healthcare and insurance cost pressures. EIA’s Indiana commercial electricity average was higher than a year earlier. Test customer willingness to pay before passing through every cost increase.
Federal Reserve · National summary ↗EIA · Electricity prices ↗Recent developments
May 6 · Lilly adds to Indiana commitments
Lilly announced another $4.5 billion across two Lebanon sites, alongside opening its genetic medicine facility. Indiana Commerce separately recorded the announcement. The amount is a commitment, not proof that all funds have been spent or jobs filled.
Lilly · Indiana expansion announcement ↗Indiana Commerce · Investment announcements ↗July 28 · Cummins outlines mining upgrades
The manufacturer announced developments in engines, remote monitoring and hybrid-electric haulage. The release confirms the product program; orders and realized customer savings require separate evidence.
Cummins · Mining developments ↗August 19 · IU Health announces precision oncology expansion
IU Health announced a theranostics program combining imaging and targeted treatment. This identifies a healthcare capability investment, not verified supplier purchasing volume.
IU Health · Cancer care program ↗Opportunities
Sell a measurable operating result
The strongest starting hypotheses are productivity, reliability, energy efficiency and customer value. The five opportunities at the end translate these themes into specific paid-pilot tests.
EIA · Electricity prices ↗Cummins · Mining developments ↗Federal Reserve · National summary ↗Risks
Avoid a single optimistic statewide assumption
Track whether orders, margins and collections improve in your own segment. Separate announced investment from completed projects, and do not mistake national or regional evidence for a local customer survey. Three priority risks and practical controls appear below.
Indiana DWD · July employment report ↗Federal Reserve · Lending survey ↗Indiana Commerce · Investment announcements ↗Pricing and business models
Indiana has many distinct markets, so there is no meaningful single statewide price. Official benchmarks below are separated from suggested commercial models.
| Area | Benchmark or model | How to use it |
|---|---|---|
| Electricity benchmark | June 2026: commercial 14.15¢/kWh; industrial 9.00¢/kWh. Commercial was 13.67¢ a year earlier.EIA · Electricity prices ↗ | EIA averages are revenue per kWh, not site-specific tariffs. Obtain a full bill estimate including applicable demand charges. |
| Borrowing | National July survey: business-loan standards broadly unchanged during Q2; conditions differ by loan type.Federal Reserve · Lending survey ↗ | Compare written offers including fees, covenants, collateral and repayment terms. Do not use one statewide loan rate. |
| Industrial and project services | Model to evaluate: a scoped project fee followed by maintenance or support revenue. | Set milestones, change-order rules and acceptance criteria; measure customer downtime or throughput gains. |
| Professional services and software | Model to evaluate: paid pilot, then subscription or retainer with clearly defined scope. | Test three offer levels and track retention, delivery cost and customer acquisition payback. These are proposed models, not measured Indiana market prices. |
| Retail and hospitality | Model to evaluate: transparent entry offer with optional premium services.Federal Reserve · National summary ↗ | Test contribution margin and repeat purchases, rather than pursuing volume through indiscriminate discounts. |
What customers are saying
Regional reports show trading down
Chicago district contacts described shoppers moving toward lower-cost options, while restaurant traffic softened. These are business contacts’ reports about customers, not a representative Indiana customer poll.
Federal Reserve · Chicago district ↗National evidence supports the value theme, with limits
The national Beige Book also describes price sensitivity alongside resilient high-end spending. That supports segmented offers rather than one blanket discount. Both reports belong to the same Fed publication, so their agreement is not independent survey replication.
Federal Reserve · National summary ↗Validate locally before scaling
This report contains no BusinessIndy customer interviews or fabricated reviews. Interview recent buyers and lost prospects about switching triggers, total price, service failures and purchase approval. Record the sample and dates before drawing statewide conclusions.
Where the market appears to be heading
Base case · uneven, selective growth
BusinessIndy assessment for the next 6–12 months: prioritize targeted growth and operating efficiency over broad capacity expansion. This is a scenario derived from labor, credit and spending evidence, not a quantified forecast.
Indiana DWD · July employment report ↗Federal Reserve · Lending survey ↗Federal Reserve · National summary ↗Upside and downside to watch
The upside is conversion of investment plans into supplier orders. The downside is slower project execution and buyers resisting price increases. Reassess after new state employment releases and after actual contract awards, not simply another announcement.
Indiana Commerce · Investment announcements ↗EIA · Electricity prices ↗Federal Reserve · National summary ↗Evidence and cross-checks
This is a dated research edition, not a live economic feed. Monthly data are preliminary and may be revised. The July unemployment figure matches DWD and BLS, which share an underlying statistical program; that is a consistency check, not independent measurement. Lilly’s commitment is confirmed in company and state accounts of the same announcement. Neither proves completed spending.
Labor data, energy statistics and business surveys provide different evidence for the broader assessment. Company statements remain attributed. Regional and national customer observations are not Indiana-wide polling. Historical industry shares are labeled by period; no older figure is presented as current growth. Opportunities and scenarios are BusinessIndy judgments to test.
Sources and observation periods
- Indiana DWD · July employment report ↗Released Aug. 21, 2026; July data
- BLS · State unemployment table ↗July 2026; preliminary, seasonally adjusted
- Federal Reserve · Chicago district ↗Sept. 2, 2026; July and early August observations; regional anecdotes
- Federal Reserve · National summary ↗Sept. 2, 2026; observations through Aug. 24; national context
- Federal Reserve · Lending survey ↗July 2026 survey; primarily second-quarter national lending conditions
- EIA · Electricity prices ↗Released Aug. 26, 2026; June preliminary averages
- IU Kelley / IBRC · Indiana industry structure ↗2026 outlook using 2025 Q2 BEA industry data; historical context
- Indiana Commerce · Investment announcements ↗May 29, 2026; announced commitments
- Lilly · Indiana expansion announcement ↗May 6, 2026; company statement
- Cummins · Mining developments ↗July 28, 2026; company statement
- IU Health · Cancer care program ↗Aug. 19, 2026; provider statement
- Simon · Quarterly performance ↗Aug. 10, 2026; company statement
- Allison · Quarterly results ↗Aug. 3, 2026; company statement
- Zimmer Biomet · Quarterly results ↗Aug. 5, 2026; company statement
- Elanco · Quarterly results ↗Aug. 5, 2026; company statement
- Duke Energy · Indiana operations ↗Aug. 19, 2026; utility statement
10 key findings
1. Low unemployment and softer payrolls coexist
July unemployment was 3.3%, while private jobs declined from June.
Indiana DWD · July employment report ↗BLS · State unemployment table ↗2. Manufacturing remains central
The historical industry mix shows unusually high manufacturing exposure.
IU Kelley / IBRC · Indiana industry structure ↗3. Headline investment is not booked revenue
Validate procurement timing before expanding around announced projects.
Indiana Commerce · Investment announcements ↗Lilly · Indiana expansion announcement ↗4. Demand is uneven
Regional conditions and statewide labor data argue for sector-specific decisions.
Federal Reserve · Chicago district ↗Indiana DWD · July employment report ↗5. Customer value needs proof
Price sensitivity makes measurable savings and transparent offers worth testing.
Federal Reserve · National summary ↗6. Power costs deserve attention
Indiana commercial electricity averaged 14.15¢/kWh in June, up from 13.67¢ a year earlier.
EIA · Electricity prices ↗7. Credit is not uniformly tightening
National business-loan standards were broadly unchanged in Q2; construction credit remained historically restrictive.
Federal Reserve · Lending survey ↗8. Modernization is a credible prospecting theme
Company announcements identify concrete equipment and care programs to investigate.
Cummins · Mining developments ↗IU Health · Cancer care program ↗9. No single company represents the state
Use major issuers as prospecting anchors, not a substitute for smaller-company demand research.
IU Kelley / IBRC · Indiana industry structure ↗10. Local customer evidence is still needed
Regional anecdotes should lead to interviews and paid tests, not unsupported market-size claims.
Federal Reserve · National summary ↗5 opportunities
1. Industrial maintenance and automation
Offer a paid equipment or workflow diagnostic, then a bounded improvement project. Proceed only when the buyer can measure the baseline and authorize a budget.
Cummins · Mining developments ↗2. Qualified life-science supplier services
Investigate facility support, documentation and specialized contracting around announced investments. Confirm qualification requirements and an actual purchasing contact first.
Lilly · Indiana expansion announcement ↗Indiana Commerce · Investment announcements ↗3. Business energy efficiency
Review billing and operating schedules, then test an efficiency intervention with a before/after measurement plan. Price against verified savings rather than a guaranteed result.
EIA · Electricity prices ↗4. Healthcare operations support
Explore administrative, facility and technical needs tied to care expansion. Validate procurement access, privacy requirements and demand before building a dedicated service.
IU Health · Cancer care program ↗5. Value-focused customer offers
Test a clear entry package with paid upgrades. Use conversion, repeat business and contribution margin to decide whether to expand.
Federal Reserve · National summary ↗3 major risks
1. Project and customer concentration
A delayed anchor project can strand capacity. Require milestones or deposits and diversify the customer pipeline before adding fixed costs.
Indiana Commerce · Investment announcements ↗Lilly · Indiana expansion announcement ↗2. Margin compression
Energy, insurance or supplier costs can rise faster than acceptable selling prices. Monitor gross margin and maintain explicit repricing terms.
EIA · Electricity prices ↗Federal Reserve · National summary ↗3. Financing and execution mismatch
A project may be attractive but difficult to fund. Secure written financing and realistic staffing commitments before promising delivery dates.
Federal Reserve · Lending survey ↗Indiana DWD · July employment report ↗What I should do next
- Within 7 days: choose two customer segments and build a list of 20 Indiana prospects from the company directory. Confirm their current operations and purchasing contacts.
- Within 14 days: conduct 10 buyer interviews across those segments. Document budget, urgency, competitors and objections; do not describe this small sample as representative of Indiana.
- Within 30 days: offer two paid pilots with a baseline, success measure and clear stop/go decision. Avoid major hiring or equipment commitments before validating demand.
- Review monthly: track qualified leads, signed orders, gross margin, payment times and renewals alongside fresh state data. Expand only where customer evidence supports it.