Local news. A brighter tomorrow.U.S. Economy at a Glance · The index uses the latest verified readings shown below. Each measure has its own reporting period. These are U.S. measures, not Indiana estimates.
Score: 58/100 · Mixed / watch. Partial index · 5 of 7 components available (75% of original weight). Missing components are excluded and remaining weights are rescaled. BusinessIndy’s chosen scoring model is not an official statistic or a validated recession forecast.
Reference review: Oct 31, 2026, 10:15 AM EDT. Cloud economic and fuel checks run hourly; figures change when sources release new data.Each indicator becomes a score from 0 to 100. We multiply each component score by its weight, then add the contributions below.
The BusinessIndy score equation
ci = component score, 0–100wi = original weightA = available, verified components
Using the current verified values
At least 45% of the original weight must be available. The total uses unrounded values; the final score rounds to the nearest whole number.
| Component / values used | Score / 100 | Weight used | Points toward total |
|---|---|---|---|
| GrowthGDP: 3.40 % annualizedGDI: Unavailable or out of date | Excluded | 0.00%20% original weight | — |
| EmploymentUnemployment: 4.20 %Payroll change: 29.00 thousand jobs / month | 60.42 | 26.67%20% original weight | 16.11 |
| ConsumerReal spending: 0.00 % month over month | 50.00 | 20.00%15% original weight | 10.00 |
| Business activityCEI: 0.30 % month over month | 71.00 | 20.00%15% original weight | 14.20 |
| Leading indicatorsLEI: 0.00 % month over month | 50.00 | 20.00%15% original weight | 10.00 |
| InflationCore PCE: 3.10 % year over year | 57.00 | 13.33%10% original weight | 7.60 |
| Financial conditions10-year Treasury: Unavailable or out of dateS&P 500 daily change: Unavailable or out of date70% Treasury + 30% stocks; available inputs are rescaled. | Excluded | 0.00%5% original weight | — |
| Calculated total | 57.9111 / 100 | 100%75% original weight available | 58 / 100 displayed |
Calculation: 4,343.3333 ÷ 75 = 57.9111 → 58/100.
Formula: sum of (component score × original weight) ÷ available original weight. Unavailable or expired components are excluded; remaining weights are rescaled to 100%. Growth and employment each require both inputs. Displayed rows are rounded for readability; the total uses unrounded values. Reporting periods and verification dates are on the indicator cards below.
Consumer confidence, CPI, manufacturing output and the Fed target provide context; they do not enter this calculation.
Each input uses: low score + (value − low input) ÷ (high input − low input) × (high score − low score), then is limited to 0–100. Values outside the reference range are extrapolated before this limit is applied.
GDP: Limit to 0–100 [0 + (3.40 − (-2)) ÷ (4 − (-2)) × (100 − (0))] = 90.00.
GDI: Excluded: no usable verified value.
Component = the average of the two input scores. Component excluded.
Unemployment: Limit to 0–100 [100 + (4.20 − (3)) ÷ (8 − (3)) × (0 − (100))] = 76.00.
Payroll change: Limit to 0–100 [40 + (29.00 − (0)) ÷ (300 − (0)) × (90 − (40))] = 44.83.
Component = the average of the two input scores. Component score: 60.42.
Real spending: Limit to 0–100 [20 + (0.00 − (-0.5)) ÷ (0.5 − (-0.5)) × (80 − (20))] = 50.00.
CEI: Limit to 0–100 [15 + (0.30 − (-0.5)) ÷ (0.5 − (-0.5)) × (85 − (15))] = 71.00.
LEI: Limit to 0–100 [15 + (0.00 − (-0.5)) ÷ (0.5 − (-0.5)) × (85 − (15))] = 50.00.
Core PCE: Limit to 0–100 [90 + (3.10 − (2)) ÷ (5 − (2)) × (0 − (90))] = 57.00.
10-year Treasury: Excluded: no usable verified value.
S&P 500 daily change: Excluded: no usable verified value.
Component = (Treasury score × 0.70 + stock score × 0.30) ÷ available input weights. Component excluded.
Reporting period: Q3 2026
Release date: 2026-10-29Real GDP increased at a 3.4% annual rate in the advance Q3 estimate, up from 2.2% in Q2. The advance estimate is subject to revision.
BEA releaseReporting period: Q2 2026
Release date: 2026-09-30Older observation, overdue verification or next release now due · excluded from the index.
Q2 income-based growth was revised to 2.6% annualized. No Q3 GDI estimate was included in the October 29 advance GDP release; the retained Q2 reading remains labeled for review.
BEA releaseReporting period: September 2026
Release date: 2026-10-02September unemployment was 4.2%. This national rate is separate from Indiana’s September 3.4% preliminary estimate.
BLS releaseReporting period: September 2026
Release date: 2026-10-02September added a preliminary 29,000 jobs. August was revised from 162,000 to 133,000; plans and one monthly result do not establish a trend.
BLS releaseReporting period: September 2026
Release date: 2026-10-29Inflation-adjusted consumer spending increased by less than 0.1% in September, which rounds to 0.0% in the official release. Nominal spending increased 0.5%.
BEA releaseReporting period: September 2026
Release date: 2026-10-29Core PCE prices rose 3.1% from September 2025 and 0.3% over the month. Headline PCE inflation was 3.6% year over year.
BEA releaseA national price benchmark; individual Indiana businesses face different cost changes.
BLS via FREDNational factory output provides context for Indiana’s industrial suppliers.
Federal Reserve via FREDThe policy target is a benchmark, not a business loan quote.
Federal Reserve via FREDLoan rates also depend on the lender, term and borrower.
Federal Reserve via FRED +7.5 points month over month
Previous: 84.2 · Sep 2026
Reporting period: October 2026
Release date: 2026-10-27October confidence rose 7.5 points to 91.7. This is a national consumer survey, not an Indiana estimate, and 1985 = 100 is a comparison baseline rather than a strong/weak cutoff.
Conference Board releaseReporting period: September 2026
Release date: 2026-10-22Current activity rose 0.3% in September to 115.3 and 0.9% over six months. The index level uses 2016 = 100; the card reports the monthly percent change.
Conference Board releaseReporting period: September 2026
Release date: 2026-10-22The LEI was unchanged in September at 99.6 and rose 0.6% over six months. The index level uses 2016 = 100; the card reports the monthly percent change, not a standalone recession forecast.
Conference Board releaseThe Fed maintained its 3.75%–4.00% target range on October 28. Two members dissented in favor of a quarter-point increase. Higher borrowing costs remain a consideration.
Awaiting market feed.Quotes may be delayed or from the last trading session. Financial component excluded until recent quotes are available.
Federal Reserve · Oct. 28 releaseThese are U.S. indicators, not Indiana estimates. FRED distributes BEA, BLS and Federal Reserve series. Monthly changes use the immediately preceding calendar month; annual inflation compares the same month a year earlier. Payroll changes are in thousands. GDP and GDI are annualized quarterly growth rates. Data can be revised.
Consumer confidence comes directly from the Conference Board’s monthly release, normally published on the last Tuesday at 10 a.m. Eastern. Its change is shown in index points, not percent. The 1985 = 100 baseline is not a strong/weak threshold. This survey is a supplementary signal and does not change the seven-component BusinessIndy score.
Quotes are checked every 15 minutes, economic news at least hourly, official indicators and fuel hourly, and dashboard freshness and source links weekly. Checks run in the cloud, including when this page and your workstation are closed. A source failure retains the last verified reading and retries with backoff.
The BusinessIndy index is a calculated indicator, not a government statistic or recession probability. Scores are clipped to 0–100: growth (20% weight) averages GDP/GDI with −2% to +4% mapping to 0–100; employment (20%) averages unemployment (3% to 8% maps to 100–0) and monthly payroll gains (0 to 300,000 maps to 40–90); real spending (15%) maps −0.5% to +0.5% to 20–80; core PCE (10%) maps 2% to 5% to 90–0. Financial conditions (5%) combine Treasury yields (70%) and the S&P daily move (30%); 3%–6% yields map to 80–20 and −2% to +2% stocks to 25–75. CEI and LEI (15% each) use their monthly percent changes: −0.5% maps to 15 and +0.5% maps to 85. Their reviewed September readings expire at the next scheduled release on November 19, 2026, at 10 a.m. ET unless refreshed. CPI, manufacturing and the Fed target are context, not additional score components.
Exact arithmetic: For each input, score = max(0, min(100, low score + (input − low input) ÷ (high input − low input) × (high score − low score))). The rule extrapolates beyond the anchors, then clips at 0 and 100. Growth averages the two separately clipped GDP/GDI scores; employment averages its two separately clipped scores. Total = sum of component score × weight ÷ sum of available weights. Financial inputs use the same weighted-average rule; one missing input is excluded. Only the final display is rounded.
These thresholds and weights are BusinessIndy design choices, not thresholds endorsed by BEA, BLS, the Federal Reserve or the Conference Board. A daily stock move and Treasury level provide only a limited view of financial conditions.
Score bands: 80+ strong; 70+ healthy; 60+ expanding with pressure; 45+ mixed/watch; 30+ under pressure; below 30 severe pressure. The score is withheld below 45% available weight. Daily-feed verification over three days old or overdue reporting periods are excluded. The separately verified October release snapshot remains usable only until each card’s next scheduled release. Newer reporting periods and newer same-period source revisions take precedence. Quotes require a successful check within 45 minutes and an observation less than four days old, allowing for market closures.
Weekly review is awaiting its first cloud run. The long-form research edition below retains its original date until separately reviewed.
Verified BusinessIndy coverage of national developments affecting costs, financing, hiring and demand.
U.S. housing starts declined to a 1.221 million annual rate in September, while permits slipped 0.2% and completions increased 2.2%, according to Census Bureau and HUD estimates.
Read BusinessIndy coverage →The U.S. Department of Labor reported seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims of 194,000 for the week ending Oct. 17, 2026, while advance seasonally adjusted continuing (insured) claims rose to 1,728,000 for the week ending Oct. 10, 2026.
Read BusinessIndy coverage →The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its State Employment and Unemployment news release on 2026-10-20 with preliminary, seasonally adjusted unemployment rates for September 2026: Florida 4.4%, Texas 4.4%, New York 4.3% and Puerto Rico 6.2%.
Read BusinessIndy coverage →See how rising costs could change your profit—and what it would take to recover it.
Example scenario—not your business data. Edit the numbers to see results instantly.
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At unchanged sales, a 3% expense increase adds $14,400 in costs over 12 identical months.
That uses up 12.0% of your current operating profit.
These are separate scenarios, not amounts to add together. Customer demand and delivery capacity can change the result.
BusinessIndy planning prompts based on your scenario and industry—not a forecast or an assessment of your books.
Compare supplier prices, travel time and actual job hours before quoting your next plumbing, HVAC or construction job.
Why: $1,200 in added monthly costs is the amount your pricing or savings would need to offset.Review callbacks and unbilled travel before adding more jobs or hiring. Review this with whoever schedules your 1–10-person team.
Why: The extra-sales route requires $3,000 a month; new staffing or equipment could lower the margin you entered.Compare material payments with customer deposits and invoice dates before committing to a larger job.
Why: profit is not cash in the bank; bills may come due before customers pay.Added monthly cost = operating expenses × expense increase. Starting operating profit = revenue − expenses. Scenario profit = starting profit − added cost. Extra sales = added cost ÷ contribution margin as a decimal. Price increase = added cost ÷ current revenue × 100. The target is to preserve operating profit dollars, not profit percentage.
Use a contribution margin that reflects higher variable costs. The sales scenario assumes sufficient capacity and no new fixed expenses. The price scenario assumes unchanged sales volume, sales mix and total costs; percentage-based fees may reduce the benefit. Taxes, financing, seasonality and customer responses are not modeled. Values are rounded for display.
SBA: break-even and contribution-margin concepts ↗Major indexes, Treasury yields, commodities and the cost of filling up in Indiana and across the United States.
Checked every 15 minutes in the cloud, even when this page is closed. Quotes may be delayed; timestamps show the last reported trade, including the last session when markets are closed. Futures prices are not retail fuel or physical gold or silver prices.
AAA daily US averages · US dollars per gallon · regular unleaded gasoline.
AAA daily averages · US dollars per gallon · regular unleaded gasoline. These are regional averages, not individual station prices.
Loading dated fuel averages…
Source: AAA Indiana fuel prices and metro averages ↗Company-reported net income or earnings attributable to shareholders for the six months ended June 30, 2026. US dollars; figures below are rounded to billions. New third-quarter results are arriving on different dates, so this remains a like-period comparison pending review, not a current year-to-date total.
These totals cover companywide operations—not profit on a gallon of gasoline—and the companies have different mixes of production, refining, chemicals and other businesses.
National purchase benchmarks · Bankrate · October 31, 2026
Adjust the figures to estimate monthly principal and interest.
This estimate uses the interest rate, not APR. It does not include property taxes, homeowners insurance, mortgage insurance, HOA fees or closing costs. It is not a loan offer.
These are national averages for purchase loans, rather than Indiana lender quotes. APR includes interest and certain borrowing costs. Your offer depends on credit, down payment, fees and loan terms.
Source verified November 1, 2026. Scheduled source checks run hourly in the cloud.
Each figure has its own measurement period, release date and verification date. A recent check does not make an older measurement new. The economic cards use verified releases; quote and fuel checks retain the last observation when a source fails.
Written assessment dated Sep 7, 2026; evidence review completed Oct 22, 2026. The review updated September labor benchmarks while preserving older evidence periods, historical labels, announced-plan qualifications and the September 7 analysis. Next scheduled written review: Nov 20, 2026, when the next Indiana employment release is due. Labor benchmarks were last successfully reviewed Oct 22, 2026; electricity keeps its own verification date below.
See benchmark dates and next releases ↓A comparison of Lilly and Simon workforce disclosures explains why global, U.S. and headquarters counts answer different questions about Indiana employment.
October 11, 2026 · Original analysis · Year-end 2025 workforce figuresRead BusinessIndy research →Indiana offers substantial opportunities, but demand varies sharply by sector and customer. This edition brings together state labor data, regional business feedback and company announcements to guide operating decisions.
Research edition · · BusinessIndy analysis · Evidence reviewedIndiana’s preliminary September 2026 unemployment rate was 3.4%, confirmed by DWD and BLS, compared with 4.2% nationally for September. Derived private employment was 2,848,000, up 3,200 from revised August. The private figure subtracts BLS government payrolls from total nonfarm payrolls; it is not reported in the DWD snapshot.
Indiana DWD · September employment snapshot ↗BLS · September state employment release ↗IBRC’s 2025 Q2 comparison put manufacturing at 27.3% of Indiana real GDP, versus 10.1% nationally. That is a structural reference, not a September 2026 growth estimate. Regional Fed contacts reported slight activity growth in the September 2, 2026 report.
IU Kelley / IBRC · Indiana industry structure ↗Federal Reserve · Chicago district ↗A statewide average is a starting point. Compare the specific county, workforce catchment, customer segment and facility requirements before choosing a market. The Chicago Fed district includes much of Indiana but does not represent the entire state.
Indiana DWD · September employment snapshot ↗Federal Reserve · Chicago district ↗Representative anchors across sectors, not a revenue ranking or an exhaustive list. Company sources establish their activities; they do not independently establish market share.
| Company | Market | Why watch |
|---|---|---|
| Eli Lilly and CompanyNYSE: LLY · Loading… | Human medicines and manufacturing | Lebanon investment and pharmaceutical supply chainsLilly · Indiana expansion announcement ↗ |
| CumminsNYSE: CMI · Loading… | Engines and power systems | Industrial equipment, monitoring and aftermarket needsCummins · Mining developments ↗ |
| Allison TransmissionNYSE: ALSN · Loading… | Vehicle propulsion and off-highway systems | Manufacturing and mobility supply chainsAllison · Quarterly results ↗ |
| Zimmer BiometNYSE: ZBH · Loading… | Medical technology | Orthopedics and medical-device operationsZimmer Biomet · Quarterly results ↗ |
| Elanco Animal HealthNYSE: ELAN · Loading… | Animal health | Livestock and companion-animal productsElanco · Quarterly results ↗ |
| Indiana University HealthNot publicly traded | Healthcare delivery | Clinical infrastructure and specialized careIU Health · Cancer care program ↗ |
| Simon Property GroupNYSE: SPG · Loading… | Retail real estate | Retail destinations, leasing and tenant demandSimon · Quarterly performance ↗ |
| Duke Energy IndianaNYSE: DUK · Loading…Parent company: Duke Energy | Electric utility | Power supply and local utility requirementsDuke Energy · Indiana operations ↗ |
Stock quotes from Yahoo Finance may be delayed. Checked every 15 minutes in the cloud; closed markets show the last reported trade.
State payroll data and regional contacts point to uneven conditions. Treat large capital announcements as potential supplier pipelines; require contracts or procurement evidence before counting them as near-term revenue.
Indiana DWD · September employment snapshot ↗Federal Reserve · Chicago district ↗Indiana Commerce · Investment announcements ↗Cummins’ July mining announcement includes engine upgrades and remote monitoring. Lilly’s manufacturing commitments indicate a different capital-intensive market. These examples support investigating maintenance, automation and qualified supplier work; they do not establish market-wide sales growth.
Cummins · Mining developments ↗Lilly · Indiana expansion announcement ↗The September national Beige Book describes price-sensitive buyers and persistent healthcare and insurance cost pressures. In August 2026, EIA’s Indiana commercial electricity average was 13.29¢/kWh, below August 2025’s 13.86¢. The monthly average does not establish every customer’s bill. Test customer willingness to pay before passing through every cost increase.
Federal Reserve · National summary ↗EIA · Electricity prices ↗Lilly announced another $4.5 billion across two Lebanon sites, alongside opening its genetic medicine facility. Indiana Commerce separately recorded the announcement. The amount is a commitment, not proof that all funds have been spent or jobs filled.
Lilly · Indiana expansion announcement ↗Indiana Commerce · Investment announcements ↗The manufacturer announced developments in engines, remote monitoring and hybrid-electric haulage. The release confirms the product program; orders and realized customer savings require separate evidence.
Cummins · Mining developments ↗IU Health announced a theranostics program combining imaging and targeted treatment. This identifies a healthcare capability investment, not verified supplier purchasing volume.
IU Health · Cancer care program ↗The strongest starting hypotheses are productivity, reliability, energy efficiency and customer value. The five opportunities at the end translate these themes into specific paid-pilot tests.
EIA · Electricity prices ↗Cummins · Mining developments ↗Federal Reserve · National summary ↗Track whether orders, margins and collections improve in your own segment. Separate announced investment from completed projects, and do not mistake national or regional evidence for a local customer survey. Three priority risks and practical controls appear below.
Indiana DWD · September employment snapshot ↗Federal Reserve · Lending survey ↗Indiana Commerce · Investment announcements ↗Indiana has many distinct markets, so there is no meaningful single statewide price. Official benchmarks below are separated from suggested commercial models.
| Area | Benchmark or model | How to use it |
|---|---|---|
| Electricity benchmark | August 2026 Indiana commercial average: 13.29¢/kWh; industrial: 9.28¢/kWh.EIA · Electricity prices ↗ | Compare your actual tariff and usage. August 2025 averages were 13.86¢ and 8.98¢; sector averages do not predict a particular bill. |
| Borrowing | National July survey: business-loan standards broadly unchanged during Q2; conditions differ by loan type.Federal Reserve · Lending survey ↗ | Compare written offers including fees, covenants, collateral and repayment terms. Do not use one statewide loan rate. |
| Industrial and project services | Model to evaluate: a scoped project fee followed by maintenance or support revenue. | Set milestones, change-order rules and acceptance criteria; measure customer downtime or throughput gains. |
| Professional services and software | Model to evaluate: paid pilot, then subscription or retainer with clearly defined scope. | Test three offer levels and track retention, delivery cost and customer acquisition payback. These are proposed models, not measured Indiana market prices. |
| Retail and hospitality | Model to evaluate: transparent entry offer with optional premium services.Federal Reserve · National summary ↗ | Test contribution margin and repeat purchases, rather than pursuing volume through indiscriminate discounts. |
Chicago district contacts described shoppers moving toward lower-cost options, while restaurant traffic softened. These are business contacts’ reports about customers, not a representative Indiana customer poll.
Federal Reserve · Chicago district ↗The national Beige Book also describes price sensitivity alongside resilient high-end spending. That supports segmented offers rather than one blanket discount. Both reports belong to the same Fed publication, so their agreement is not independent survey replication.
Federal Reserve · National summary ↗This report contains no BusinessIndy customer interviews or fabricated reviews. Interview recent buyers and lost prospects about switching triggers, total price, service failures and purchase approval. Record the sample and dates before drawing statewide conclusions.
BusinessIndy assessment for the 6–12 months after the September 7, 2026 assessment: prioritize targeted growth and operating efficiency over broad capacity expansion. This is a scenario derived from labor, credit and spending evidence, not a quantified forecast.
Indiana DWD · September employment snapshot ↗Federal Reserve · Lending survey ↗Federal Reserve · National summary ↗The upside is conversion of investment plans into supplier orders. The downside is slower project execution and buyers resisting price increases. Reassess after new state employment releases and after actual contract awards, not simply another announcement.
Indiana Commerce · Investment announcements ↗EIA · Electricity prices ↗Federal Reserve · National summary ↗This is a dated research edition, not a live economic feed. Monthly data are preliminary and may be revised. DWD and BLS both report September unemployment at 3.4%. September private employment is a transparent derivation from BLS total nonfarm less government payrolls, not a separate DWD publication. Lilly’s commitment is confirmed in company and state accounts of the same announcement. Neither proves completed spending.
Labor data, energy statistics and business surveys provide different evidence for the broader assessment. Company statements remain attributed. Regional and national customer observations are not Indiana-wide polling. Historical industry shares are labeled by period; no older figure is presented as current growth. Opportunities and scenarios are BusinessIndy judgments to test.
September 2026 unemployment was 3.4%; derived private employment rose 3,200 from revised August to 2,848,000. A single monthly gain does not establish broad acceleration.
BLS · September state employment release ↗The historical industry mix shows unusually high manufacturing exposure.
IU Kelley / IBRC · Indiana industry structure ↗Validate procurement timing before expanding around announced projects.
Indiana Commerce · Investment announcements ↗Lilly · Indiana expansion announcement ↗Regional conditions and statewide labor data argue for sector-specific decisions.
Federal Reserve · Chicago district ↗Indiana DWD · September employment snapshot ↗Price sensitivity makes measurable savings and transparent offers worth testing.
Federal Reserve · National summary ↗Indiana commercial electricity averaged 13.29¢/kWh in August 2026, below 13.86¢ in August 2025. Industrial averages were 9.28¢ and 8.98¢, respectively. These averages are benchmarks, not individual tariffs.
EIA · Electricity prices ↗National business-loan standards were broadly unchanged in Q2; construction credit remained historically restrictive.
Federal Reserve · Lending survey ↗Company announcements identify concrete equipment and care programs to investigate.
Cummins · Mining developments ↗IU Health · Cancer care program ↗Use major issuers as prospecting anchors, not a substitute for smaller-company demand research.
IU Kelley / IBRC · Indiana industry structure ↗Regional anecdotes should lead to interviews and paid tests, not unsupported market-size claims.
Federal Reserve · National summary ↗Offer a paid equipment or workflow diagnostic, then a bounded improvement project. Proceed only when the buyer can measure the baseline and authorize a budget.
Cummins · Mining developments ↗Investigate facility support, documentation and specialized contracting around announced investments. Confirm qualification requirements and an actual purchasing contact first.
Lilly · Indiana expansion announcement ↗Indiana Commerce · Investment announcements ↗Review billing and operating schedules, then test an efficiency intervention with a before/after measurement plan. Price against verified savings rather than a guaranteed result.
EIA · Electricity prices ↗Explore administrative, facility and technical needs tied to care expansion. Validate procurement access, privacy requirements and demand before building a dedicated service.
IU Health · Cancer care program ↗Test a clear entry package with paid upgrades. Use conversion, repeat business and contribution margin to decide whether to expand.
Federal Reserve · National summary ↗A delayed anchor project can strand capacity. Require milestones or deposits and diversify the customer pipeline before adding fixed costs.
Indiana Commerce · Investment announcements ↗Lilly · Indiana expansion announcement ↗Energy, insurance or supplier costs can rise faster than acceptable selling prices. Monitor gross margin and maintain explicit repricing terms.
EIA · Electricity prices ↗Federal Reserve · National summary ↗A project may be attractive but difficult to fund. Secure written financing and realistic staffing commitments before promising delivery dates.
Federal Reserve · Lending survey ↗Indiana DWD · September employment snapshot ↗