National 8.2% health-cost surge projected for 2027 has potential implications for Indiana employers

Marsh’s preliminary survey of more than 1,800 employers, conducted June 10–Aug. 10, found employers expect average health benefit costs to rise 8.2% in 2027 — the largest projected increase since 2003. Marsh reported that without cost-cutting measures the employers’ current plans would cost about 11% more on average. The projection follows five years of elevated growth after a decade of smaller increases; this year’s average rise was 6.7%.

Marsh executives pointed to pricier medical tests and treatments, health-system consolidation, reduced public-health funding and the growing use of GLP‑1 weight-management drugs — which Marsh estimates add one percentage point to the 8.2% projection — as major drivers. The survey found 59% of employers plan to change plan designs, and an earlier Marsh poll indicated roughly two-thirds of large firms expect to raise worker premium contributions; some large employers plan variable copay or high-performance network options. The firm also highlighted managing extremely high-cost claims as a top priority, and said final survey results will be released later this year.

BusinessIndy examines this development and its implications for Indiana businesses and communities using the linked sources.