SEA 1's $1.47 billion forecast needs an update after 2026 law changes

Indiana's 2025 fiscal analysis of Senate Enrolled Act 1 projected roughly $1.47 billion in lower local property-tax revenue across 2026–2028 compared with prior law. That historical forecast does not measure losses already incurred or provide an updated estimate under the law as amended in 2026.

The Legislative Services Agency's April 23, 2025 fiscal note estimated net local property-tax revenue reductions of $386.2 million in 2026, $393.8 million in 2027 and $685.6 million in 2028 for the provisions included in its table. Those totals include projected increases in tax-increment-financing revenue that offset some reductions to other units. The school-corporation row totals $744.4 million across the three years. The note separately discusses additional tax credits excluded from that table.

One assumption has since changed. The 2025 analysis assumed local-income-tax-funded property-tax relief would end beginning in 2028. Section 106 of House Enrolled Act 1210, signed March 12, 2026, moved the relief rate's expiration from Dec. 31, 2027, to Dec. 31, 2028. The older model therefore needs revision before it can describe the current fiscal outlook.

A separate Indiana Coalition for Public Education survey offers a dated account of what participating districts reported. The public-school advocacy group's survey closed Aug. 28, 2026, with voluntary responses from 144 of Indiana's 290 traditional public-school corporations. Its report was released Sept. 23.

Among responding corporations, 50% reported support-staff reductions already made and 45.8% reported teaching-staff reductions already made. Decisions to make future reductions and actions merely under consideration were separate response categories.

Those self-reported results do not establish statewide job-loss totals or show that SEA 1 caused every reported reduction.

For Central Indiana businesses and residents assessing local budgets, the next evidence is local: actual tax receipts, adopted spending plans, reserve use and documented changes in services. The historical forecast and survey alone cannot establish a particular community's current revenue loss, staffing change or tax bill.

Sources: https://legiscan.com/IN/supplement/SB0001/id/583746/Indiana-2025-SB0001-Fiscal_Note_1_House_Enrolled.pdf https://legiscan.com/IN/text/HB1210/id/3380800/Indiana-2026-HB1210-Enrolled.pdf https://www.in.gov/gov/newsroom/2026-bill-watch/ https://indianacoalitionforpubliced.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/ICPE_2026-School-Funding-Report.pdf

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